Thousands of homeowners across ten major cities are showing signs of financial or regulatory pressure that could lead them to sell off-market, according to eXp UK.
Its analysis identifies 21,669 potential sellers whose circumstances include expiring low-rate mortgages, possible EPC upgrade requirements, insolvency, probate, tribunal decisions, vacancy or high leverage.
The properties have an estimated combined value exceeding £9 billion, although eXp stresses that not every owner identified will ultimately decide to sell.
The findings suggest technology could help agents identify and approach prospective vendors before their homes appear through conventional listing channels.
LONDON ACCOUNTS FOR £7.1BN
London represents the largest concentration, with 13,105 properties valued collectively at more than £7.1 billion.
An estimated 4,128 owners in the capital have low-cost mortgage deals arranged during 2021 that are due to expire this year, potentially requiring them to refinance at substantially higher rates.
A further 1,759 landlords own properties that may require energy-efficiency improvements under proposed rules requiring rental homes to reach EPC C by 2030.
GalimAI flags another 7,218 London homeowners through other indicators monitored by its platform.
Manchester ranks second with 2,188 potential sellers, including 1,517 owners approaching the end of cheap fixed-rate mortgages and 664 landlords facing possible EPC upgrades.
Nottingham follows with 1,365 identified owners, ahead of Birmingham at 1,215, Liverpool at 1,116 and Leeds at 1,009.
TECHNOLOGY CHANGES PROSPECTING
The analysis uses proprietary GalimAI data drawn from public records covering more than one million UK property owners.
Adam Day, head of eXp UK and Europe, says: “Not every homeowner identified by this research will decide to sell, but it provides a fascinating insight into where tomorrow’s housing supply could emerge before it ever reaches the open market.
“The combination of higher mortgage costs, changing regulation for landlords and wider financial pressures is creating circumstances where many homeowners may decide that selling is their best option over the coming months.”
Day adds that agents traditionally became involved only once homeowners had decided to sell, but data technology now enables earlier conversations with potential vendors.
“In a market where winning instructions has never been more competitive, understanding where future opportunities are likely to come from is becoming just as important as competing for the instructions that are already visible,” he says.
