UK property transactions rose slightly in March but remain significantly below last year’s levels following stamp duty changes.
Latest data from HM Revenue & Customs shows there were 104,070 seasonally adjusted residential transactions in March 2026, up 1% on February.
However, the figure is 41% lower than March 2025, when activity was boosted by buyers rushing to complete ahead of changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions totalled 101,070, up 16% month-on-month but down 39% year-on-year.
MODEST RECOVERY
The data suggests a modest recovery in activity following a quieter start to the year, although volumes remain subdued compared to the previous peak.
Non-residential transactions also increased on a monthly basis, rising 4% to 10,680 on a seasonally adjusted basis, though they were 6% lower than a year earlier.
The figures reflect completions rather than agreed sales, meaning they lag current market conditions by two to four months.
This suggests the March uptick may relate to deals agreed earlier in the year, rather than a sustained improvement in demand.
The sharp annual decline shows the impact of tax-driven distortions in 2025, when transactions surged ahead of the SDLT deadline.
INDUSTRY REACTION
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, says: “Despite starting the year with positivity and with current uncertainty globally, it sadly comes as little shock that we are seeing a slowing year-on-year in the number of completed property transactions within the marketplace.
“Although there is positive news to be seen when comparing the figures directly against last month, it is important to acknowledge the many challenges ahead.
“As consumers prepare for the traditionally busy spring months to buy and maybe sell a property, they should keep a close eye on mortgage deals and future affordability in terms of ensuring continuity regarding household budgeting in case of future jumps in inflation.
“Propertymark’s sector data recently demonstrated a peak in the number of housing transactions taking in excess of 17 weeks to complete. With current uncertainty within the economy, there is potential for this figure to trend further upwards.”
MIDDLE EAST IMPACT
Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, says: “The impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK housing market is now unmistakeable.
“The 41% drop in transactions in March came at a time when momentum is normally building.
“The initial shock has faded but mortgage rates have jumped around in recent weeks given the confused outlook around the length of the conflict and to what extent it could escalate.
“Buyers will increasingly tune out the news as the direction of travel appears to be towards a resolution but downwards pressure on prices will persist.
“We expect transaction volumes will stabilise and recover as buyers and sellers adjust to the new lending landscape but the inflationary impact of the energy price shock and the likelihood of a government response have prompted us to downgrade our price forecasts for this year.”
FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM
Maria Harris, chair of the Open Property Data Association, says: “The fall in transaction volumes compared with this time last year points to a more fundamental problem in the housing market: people are choosing not to move.
“Our research shows that two‑thirds of home movers found the process so frustrating that they would avoid doing it again. In a period of heightened market volatility, that reluctance only intensifies, with more households putting moving plans on hold altogether.
“The current housing system actively discourages movement. It is slow, fragmented and reliant on static documents, creating unnecessary friction, cost and uncertainty for consumers. This is not a short‑term confidence issue, it is a structural one.”
MORE CHOICE
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, says: “The continued uptick in transaction numbers on the previous month underlines the resilience of the housing market, as buyers and sellers who need to move get on with the business of doing so.
“While borrowers would prefer last year’s rate-cutting trend to continue, a hold in interest rates at 3.75 per cent last month, and another expected this time around, suggests a steady rate environment while the Bank waits to see what impact the Middle East conflict may have on inflation.
“In the past week, some of the biggest lenders have reduced their mortgage rates, helping ease borrower affordability.
“Increased stock, as sellers try to take advantage of the spring market, means buyers have more choice than has been the case for a while. This is putting them in a stronger negotiating position and they remain price sensitive.”
BROADLY STEADY
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, says: “HMRC’s figures revealing a year-on-year decline in property transactions largely reflect the exceptional surge in activity seen in March last year, rather than any deterioration in today’s market conditions.
“With over 160,000 transactions recorded in March 2025, activity reached unusually elevated levels as buyers brought forward purchases ahead of the Stamp Duty threshold changes, creating a temporary distortion in the annual comparison.
“This is a pattern that has been seen before in policy-driven markets, most notably in 2021 when activity spiked sharply ahead of the end of the Covid-era Stamp Duty holiday before normalising once the incentive was removed. In June 2021, monthly transactions rose to in excess of 200,000, illustrating the scale of the short-term pull-forward effect. In both instances, it is policy timing rather than underlying demand that has driven the volatility in the data.
“Stripping out these effects, underlying market conditions today remain broadly steady. Transaction levels in recent months have shown little volatility, suggesting a consistent level of activity despite the headline movement in the annual figures.
“Against this backdrop, today’s data lands alongside the Bank of England’s interest rate decision this afternoon, where rates are widely expected to be held. That stability in monetary policy should help maintain the current steady tone in the housing market rather than prompt any meaningful shift in momentum.”
PICKING UP
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “On the ground, we saw some softening in initial viewing levels in March as people took stock of the situation in the Middle East and what impact this might have on borrowing costs.
“However, since then, things have picked up and the past week has been very busy, with a strong level of viewings and serious offers coming through.
“Transactions are being agreed at levels broadly in line with what we would expect at this time of year and while we fell behind in exchanges in the first quarter, we are now back in line on volumes and ahead of revenue, reflecting the higher-value properties which have been transacting post-Budget.”
STAMP DUTY DISTORTION
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “The latest HMRC transaction figures need to be viewed in their proper context.
“While the year-on-year drop in March looks dramatic on paper, it largely reflects the distortion created by the surge of completions as buyers rushed to beat the stamp duty changes last year. That pull-forward of activity has inevitably left a softer comparative base for 2026.
“Encouragingly, on a month-on-month basis, we’re seeing signs of stability returning. Transactions are up compared to February, and this aligns with what we’re seeing on the ground: a market that remains active, underpinned by needs-based buyers and sellers who continue to transact regardless of wider economic noise.
“While uncertainty persists, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation ticking up, the fundamentals of the UK housing market remain intact. Mortgage rate volatility earlier in the year did weigh on sentiment, but with swap rates easing and lenders beginning to trim fixed-rate products, there are early indications of improving confidence.
“This is reflected in buyer behaviour. Enquiry levels are now tracking just marginally below last year. House price growth has held steady, and transaction timelines have remained broadly stable, which speaks to the resilience of the market.
“Any further signs of stability could provide an additional boost to activity as we move into the summer months. Overall, while the headline annual decline may grab attention, the underlying story is one of a market that is steadying itself after an exceptional period, rather than one in retreat.”
