England is around 223,000 homes behind the straight-line pace needed to deliver the Government’s 1.5 million-home housebuilding ambition by the end of this Parliament, new analysis claims.
Analysis by landvaluecalculator.co.uk of official housing supply figures published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government calculates that around 437,900 homes have been delivered since July 2024.
Around 660,000 would have been required by this point if delivery were spread evenly across the five-year Parliament, according to its calculations.
The analysis projects that continuing at the current rate would result in around 989,000 homes being delivered by July 2029 – approximately 511,000 short of 1.5 million.
DELIVERY GAP
The Government remains committed to its ambition of delivering 1.5 million homes over the Parliament, which it has sought to support through planning reform and funding aimed at accelerating housing supply.
Landvaluecalculator.co.uk calculates that the pace required from now until July 2029 would need to increase to around 1,041 homes a day to reach 1.5 million.
Its projection assumes the latest estimated annual delivery rate continues for the remainder of the Parliament and should therefore not be treated as an official forecast of eventual housing delivery.
A spokesperson for landvaluecalculator.co.uk says: “The Housing Secretary said there was a slim chance. This week’s figures put a number on it.
“The government is on course to miss its flagship pledge by a third, and to build about half the homes its own assessment says England needs.”
HOUSING PIPELINE
The latest official statistics also point to continuing pressure on the development pipeline.
New-build starts increased 15% in the year to June 2026, according to MHCLG’s latest housing supply release, although the department cautions that its different measures of housebuilding use different methodologies and should be interpreted accordingly.
The analysis says 143,773 new-build homes were completed in the year to June, while the number of homes granted planning permission fell to around 212,000.
A spokesperson for landvaluecalculator.co.uk adds: “Starts are up, and ministers are entitled to say so. But most of that rise is London getting back on its feet, completions are the lowest since 2016, and the stock of homes with planning permission has shrunk by 30% in four years.”
