UK residential property transactions dipped in July, although the wider market has recorded substantially more completed sales so far this financial year than during the same period in 2025, according to HMRC.
There were an estimated 96,710 seasonally adjusted residential transactions during July, down 2% from 98,390 in June and 1% below July last year.
However, the non-seasonally adjusted figures painted a stronger picture, with 106,620 transactions completed during the month – 3% more than in June and 5% higher than July 2025.
The broader figures suggest housing market activity during the current financial year has been considerably stronger than a year earlier.
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR
Between April and July, HMRC recorded a provisional 393,800 seasonally adjusted residential transactions, compared with 342,900 during the same four months of 2025 – an increase of almost 15%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, transactions reached 389,490 during the first four months of the 2026/27 financial year, 15% higher than the 337,530 recorded a year earlier.
July’s unadjusted total was also the highest for the month since 2022, when 110,030 transactions were recorded.
HMRC cautions that its figures measure completed transactions and therefore tend to reflect property deals where an initial offer was made between two and four months earlier.
As a result, the figures do not necessarily provide an indication of the current strength of buyer demand.
The latest data follows the significant distortion to transaction numbers seen in early 2025, when buyers brought purchases forward ahead of reductions to Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds from 1 April.
Transactions consequently surged in March 2025 before dropping sharply the following month.
COMMERCIAL MARKET STEADY
Activity across the non-residential property market remained broadly unchanged during July.
There were an estimated 10,350 seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions, marginally higher than June but 2% below July last year.
The non-seasonally adjusted total stood at 11,000, up 3% month-on-month and 1% annually.
Across the financial year to date, however, commercial activity has remained broadly flat. HMRC recorded 40,920 seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions between April and July, compared with 41,370 during the equivalent period last year.
INDUSTRY REACTION
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “July’s transaction data underlines just how cautious the housing market has been this summer.
“However, the underlying picture is more resilient than the headline suggests. The non-seasonally adjusted figure was 5% higher than July 2025, while Zoopla’s latest data showing a 7% year-on-year increase in people searching for homes suggests buyer interest is beginning to stir.
“That interest will take time to translate into enquiries, agreed sales and completed transactions, but it is an encouraging early signal as we head into autumn.
“Historically, the market sees a seasonal lift between August and September, and we could see that pattern reassert itself if mortgage rates remain stable and some of the current policy uncertainty begins to clear.
“For now, buyers have the advantage of choice, with the stock of homes for sale 5% higher than a year ago. That is keeping price growth in check and giving serious buyers greater scope to negotiate. Sellers, meanwhile, need to recognise that in a more competitive market, realistic pricing and strong presentation are increasingly important.
“The message is not that the market has stalled, but that it is operating with a higher degree of caution. There is still a baseline level of activity, and the right property at the right price will move. The real test will be whether that pent-up interest converts into transactions over the autumn.”
ACTIVITY HOLDING UP
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS Residential Chairman, says: “Transactions are a better indicator of housing market strength than more volatile prices.
“Although often reflecting decision making of a few months ago, these numbers confirm what we’ve been seeing at the sharp end. Activity is holding up better than we’d dared hoped, bearing in mind economic and political distractions.
“Genuine buyers and sellers are negotiating hard but once terms are agreed, sales are completing. However, lack of urgency and the amount of choice – particularly of flats – is extending the period before offers are submitted as well as conveyancing times.
“More expensive mortgages and Budget tax worries are adding to buyer uncertainty prompting a greater reluctance to take on too much debt.”
MIDDLE EAST CONCERNS
Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, says: “The seasonal spring bounce fell flat this year thanks to rising mortgage costs and concerns around higher taxes.
“Transactions have been on a downwards trajectory since March, which is the biggest signal that demand is weaker than normal.
“The unpredictable conflict in the Middle East means mortgage rates may not drop meaningfully any time soon but the biggest risk for the third successive year is pre-Budget tax speculation.
“We expect both to keep a lid on demand for the rest of this year as price growth falls close to zero.”
RATE SENSITIVE
Colin Bradshaw, CEO at TwentyCi, says: “The fall in seasonally-adjusted property transactions in July highlights the more cautious environment facing the housing market.
“However, despite the latest HMRC figures, TwentyCi remains positive about the underlying market and has revised its 2026 forecast upwards to 1.16 million transactions – 4.4% below 2025, but 5.2% above 2024.
“The bigger concern for the mortgage market is whether this softer activity continues into the autumn.
“TwentyCi’s sales agreed data is already 5.1% lower year-on-year, with demand being affected by mortgage affordability constraints and wider economic uncertainty.
“Mortgage rates remain sensitive to swap rate movements and household confidence continues to face pressure, suggesting lenders should expect a market that remains active, but where affordability and borrower confidence will continue to constrain the pace of transactions.”
RESILIENT MARKET
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, says: “The ongoing uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy prices and interest rates continues to dampen activity.
“However, the market’s underlying resilience remains in evidence. Buyers and sellers who need to move regardless are adapting to changing circumstances and continuing to proceed.
“The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates this year, coupled with a number of lenders easing mortgage pricing in recent weeks, is helping with affordability at a time when the cost of living remans high.
“The slowdown in annual growth in average property prices suggests expectations are becoming more aligned with market conditions. If the stock coming to market in the autumn is priced appropriately from the outset, this should help transactions progress more quickly and smoothly.”
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director of Fine & Country, says: “July’s transaction figures may look subdued on the surface, but there are reasons to believe the housing market could be approaching a turning point as we move into autumn.
“Buyer attention is starting to return to the market. A 7% year-on-year increase in people searching for homes is an important early indicator, particularly as every region is seeing more search activity for the first time in a year. It suggests buyers are moving from simply waiting to actively considering their options again.
“The key question is how quickly that renewed interest feeds through to the sales pipeline. With more stock available buyers have plenty of choice, and properties are taking longer to sell. That means the autumn recovery is unlikely to be a rising tide that lifts every property equally. Correct pricing will be critical.
“Affordability remains a constraint, with mortgage rates still higher than at the start of the year, while inflation has edged back up to 2.9%. Nevertheless, solid earnings growth is providing some support to household finances, and a period of stable interest rates would give buyers greater confidence to act.
“I would therefore expect a modest improvement in transaction activity through the autumn rather than a dramatic surge. The ingredients for a bounce-back are beginning to emerge, but buyers remain price-sensitive and sellers will need to meet them where the market is.”
EYES ON THE BUDGET
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, says: “July’s small decrease does little to alter the wider picture of a market maintaining its footing through the summer.
“Following June’s marginal increase, broadly stable transaction levels are characteristic of a period when holidays naturally interrupt activity, and some households defer decisions until the autumn.
“In these conditions, local expertise matters more than ever. A quality agent can help sellers distinguish between short-term seasonal noise and the underlying evidence in their area, while bringing the judgement needed to set a credible strategy, handle negotiations constructively and keep a transaction moving when chains become more complex.
“HMRC’s completion figures are inherently backward-looking, with many relating to sales agreed several months ago. Tuesday’s Bank of England Money and Credit report will provide a more current indication of momentum through July’s mortgage approvals and lending, particularly as some mortgage rates begin to ease from recent peaks.
“As attention turns to autumn, all eyes will also be on the Budget, with greater clarity around taxation important in giving buyers and sellers the confidence to progress their plans.
“The appetite to move is certainly there, with our data showing that 8% of owner-occupiers in England are planning to move or already doing so. Sellers can best capitalise on that demand by pricing against current market evidence, not to leave value on the table, but to attract serious buyers, generate competition and achieve the strongest possible result.”
STOCK ISSUES
Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “There are noticeably low stock levels, which is creating a bit of competition over certain new instructions.
“There remains more supply than demand when it comes to smaller flats, although over the summer we have been agreeing more flat sales and have definitely felt there is more life in the market.
“We hope that the market continues to gather momentum and doesn’t prematurely slowdown in advance of the Budget – and of course that the Budget doesn’t further derail the property market but focuses on its recovery so that people feel free to move.”
UNCERTAIN VULNERABILITY
Maria Harris, Chair of the Open Property Data Association, says: “A fall in July’s property transactions is another reminder the housing market remains vulnerable to uncertainty, but it should also reinforce the need to address the structural problems that make moving home unnecessarily difficult.
“People are still navigating a homebuying process that is too slow, too fragmented and too uncertain.
“The focus needs to move beyond simply increasing transaction volumes and towards making every transaction more reliable and less prone to delay and failure.
“The Government’s commitment to modernise homebuying creates a real opportunity to do this. But turning ambition into reality will require trusted property data, common standards and systems that can share information securely and consistently.
“If we get those fundamentals right, higher transaction volumes can be matched by a homebuying experience that works better for everyone.”
HARDER TO SELL
Richard Sexton, Commercial Director at HouzeCheck, says: “The latest figures are a reminder that the housing market is still moving cautiously. But relatively modest changes in transaction volumes should not be mistaken for lower expectations: buyers and sellers still want transactions to move quickly and with as little uncertainty as possible.
“Periods of slower activity also give the industry an opportunity to look closely at where friction remains.
“If consumers are already hesitant to move, unnecessary delays, duplicated information and uncertainty around a property’s condition can make the decision to proceed harder still.”
