Future climate change will fundamentally alter the energy demands of UK social housing with cooling requirements set to rise sharply as temperatures increase, according to new research from The University of Manchester.
The study, published in the journal MDPI, examined how housing design must adapt to changing climate conditions and the shifting balance between heating and cooling needs in the decades ahead.
Researchers found that while heating currently accounts for around 45% of total energy consumption, future climate scenarios will place far greater emphasis on keeping homes cool during warmer months.
The findings suggest cooling demand could increase by almost 139% by 2050, with further growth expected by 2080, creating new challenges for energy infrastructure, affordability and occupant wellbeing.
OUTDATED HOUSING DESIGN
The research argues that current approaches to housing design risk becoming outdated as the climate changes, potentially leaving homes ill-equipped to cope with higher temperatures and increased cooling requirements.
A key recommendation is the use of future-focused weather files when designing and testing new homes. These datasets, which model the likely impact of climate change on future weather patterns, would allow housing providers and developers to assess how buildings are expected to perform over their lifetime rather than relying solely on historic climate data.
Researchers believe that designing homes to better manage future heating and cooling demands could significantly reduce overall energy consumption and help lower reliance on fossil fuels.
The study also highlights broader concerns around the resilience of the UK’s residential energy system, warning that rising cooling demand could place additional pressure on electricity networks while increasing costs for households.
FUTURE POLICY
Dr Claire Brown, from The University of Manchester, says: “The implications of climate change for the residential energy system are far reaching.
“These emerging stresses challenge the viability of a ‘business-as-usual’ approach to housing provision and highlight the need for adaptive, forward-looking design and policy interventions to prevent future harm to residents of social housing in the UK and beyond.”
The research adds to growing evidence that future housing policy will need to focus not only on energy efficiency and decarbonisation, but also on climate resilience, ensuring homes remain comfortable, affordable and fit for purpose as temperatures continue to rise.
