Residential property transactions have risen 15% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, according to Coventry Building Society’s analysis of the latest HMRC figures.
But as the Autumn Budget approaches, speculation over sweeping tax reforms is prompting buyers and sellers to pause for clarity.
The data shows the housing market has endured a turbulent year. March saw transactions surge by more than 100% year-on-year as buyers rushed to beat stamp duty changes.
That momentum evaporated in April, when volumes fell 27%, before rebounding over the summer: June and July recorded modest gains of 3% and 5% respectively against 2024 levels. In August, activity was up 2% on last year, but growth slowed as Budget rumours began to dominate headlines.
BUDGET OVERHAUL
The Chancellor is reported to be considering abolishing stamp duty for buyers and replacing it with a levy on sellers of homes worth more than £500,000. Other options under review include allowing instalment payments of Stamp Duty and adjustments to Capital Gains Tax. The Budget is set for 26 November.
Jonathan Stinton, Head of Intermediary Relationships at Coventry Building Society, reckons the stop-start pattern reflects both resilience and fragility.
He says: “Buyers rushed in March, took a breather in spring, and came back in force over summer. But since speculation began in August, the mood has shifted.
“People are holding back, waiting to see if they could save thousands overnight. The housing market doesn’t like uncertainty.”
RECOVERY IS PLATEAUING
Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla, points out that while transactions slowed in August, they remain 10% higher than 2023.
“The recovery is plateauing due to borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. Demand for high-value homes is already being hit ahead of the Budget,” he says.
Meanwhile industry leaders warn that hesitation could deepen in the run-up to November.
Iain McKenzie, Chief Executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, says that while affordability has improved with the base rate cut to 4% after five reductions in 12 months “speculation over potential tax changes is prompting some buyers to delay decisions.”
And Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, calls the housing market “remarkably resilient” but says stability on interest rates and clear policy decisions were essential.
Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and former RICS Residential Chairman, says: “These figures reflect past activity and don’t take much account of the recent uncertainty. Some buyers, particularly at the upper end, are pressing pause.”
