The UK housing market showed signs of resilience in July as the number of completed property sales ticked higher despite ongoing affordability pressures and uncertainty over future tax policy.
According to the latest HMRC figures there were an estimated 95,580 seasonally adjusted residential transactions in July, 1% higher than June and 4% up on the same month last year.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, activity was even stronger, with 101,070 transactions recorded – a 5% rise month-on-month and 4% year-on-year.
Non-residential sales were broadly flat. Seasonally adjusted transactions stood at 10,260, up 1% compared with July 2024 but 1% lower than June 2025. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-residential deals edged up 4% month-on-month to 10,620.
MODEST IMPROVEMENT
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at advice network Quilter, says the latest figures highlight a modest but consistent improvement in housing activity after a weak spring.
She says: “July’s housing market data shows modest but consistent improvement. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions reached 95,580, which is 1% higher than June and 4% above the same month last year.
“On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, activity was even stronger, with 101,070 transactions recorded. This represents a 5% increase month-on-month and a 4% rise year-on-year, suggesting that buyer demand remains resilient despite affordability challenges.”
IMPROVING AFFORDABILITY
Noye says that transactions remain below levels typically seen before the pandemic, but adds that improving mortgage affordability and a more stable interest rate environment were helping to underpin demand.
She says: “Since the sharp drop in April, the market has shown signs of stabilisation. However, volumes remain below the levels typically seen pre-Covid. Improved mortgage affordability and a more stable interest rate environment are helping to support confidence, although many households continue to face significant financial constraints.”
Looking ahead, she warns that speculation over possible tax changes in the Chancellor’s forthcoming Budget – including a mansion tax and reforms to stamp duty – could weigh on sentiment, particularly at the higher end of the market.
She adds: “If interest rates come down and property tax is not tweaked we may see activity rebound. However, transactions could grind to a halt if changes in the Budget spook prospective sellers.”
INDUSTRY REACTION
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “Today’s HMRC data confirms that the housing market continues to regain momentum, with July transactions up both month-on-month and year-on-year, and volumes now firmly on track to reach 1.1 million in 2025.
“This steady recovery reflects renewed confidence among buyers and sellers, supported by the recent interest rate cut and improving mortgage approval figures.
“While affordability pressures remain, with inflation still elevated and mortgage rates showing only limited relief, the direction of travel is encouraging.
“We’re seeing solid levels of activity across the market.”
“We’re seeing solid levels of activity across the market, underpinned by a wider choice of homes for sale and buyers who are increasingly motivated by greater stability in borrowing costs.
“Looking ahead, we expect this positive momentum to carry into the remainder of the year, albeit tempered by price sensitivity and a softer economic backdrop.
Overall, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of steady recovery for the housing market, and today’s figures reinforce that the foundations are firmly in place for continued stability.”
CONFIDENCE COMPROMISED
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS Residential Chairman, says: “Interestingly, these resilient transaction numbers reflect what we have been seeing in our offices – buyers and sellers are negotiating hard but the overwhelming majority of agreed sales are proceeding to completion.
“However, the figures, though comprehensive by including mortgaged and cash sales, cover activity from a few months ago, including the Trump tariff turmoil.
“Now homeowners face different worries – early signs of speculation about tax increases in the Budget is compromising confidence among some.
“We may see a pause rather than the ‘stop’ button pressed at least until the uncertainty lifts a little.”
HOUSING BOOST
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, says: “It is extremely positive to see an uplift in the number of people completing on their property transaction month on month, as it is a clear-cut indicator of overall affordability and consumer confidence.
“We have witnessed the UK Government and the devolved administrations make comprehensive promises regarding housebuilding targets, which should boost the economy in the long run and provide greater choice to those who aspire to buy.
“We also have the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which will apply to England, working its way through Westminster as the autumn approaches, again aimed at increasing housing supply.”
RESILIENT MARKET
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, says: “July saw transaction numbers continue to recover following the dip in activity after the end of the stamp duty holiday as buyers brought forward purchases in order to take advantage of tax savings.
“Once again, these figures suggests that the housing market remains remarkably resilient, despite wider economic and political concerns. Five interest rate reductions in the past year have provided much needed-stimulus to the market, boosting confidence and activity.
“Further rate cuts would be particularly welcome as we head into autumn, encouraging buyers and sellers to transact at a time when there is much speculation surrounding the Budget and what it might contain for the property market.
“Any government efforts to help make the home-buying journey more accessible and affordable are welcome but any changes must work for the whole market.”
CONSTRAINED STOCK
Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “The summer market has proven to be surprisingly resilient given the continued caution from buyers.
“We’ve found in our offices is that well-priced property continues to sell, and the gap between serious buyers and committed sellers has narrowed.
“Stock levels remain constrained in our patch, which has kept competition strong for the best homes.
“We’ve seen our own transaction levels remain high through the summer.”
“Interestingly, although some agents are reporting a slowdown, we’ve actually seen our own transaction levels remain high through the summer, reflecting both strong applicant demand and increased market share.
“Looking ahead to the autumn, we expect transaction volumes to remain steady, albeit with buyers remaining price-sensitive.
“The market feels more balanced than it did in the spring: those who are motivated to move are pressing ahead, but we don’t anticipate a surge in supply, so the shortage of good stock will likely persist.
“The caveat to all of this is whether capital gains tax on primary residences, national insurance on rental income and a Mansion Tax will kill the autumn market as vendors and buyers opt to wait and see.”
GREEN SHOOTS
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, says: “Speculation is running hot in the residential market over whether new housing taxes at the top end could pull the handbrake on transaction activity.
“For now, though, buyers are still pressing the accelerator, with bargain-hunters powering through with their summer moves.
“Commercial Real Estate, however, is idling in neutral. July’s sluggish deal flow hints at more than just a seasonal slowdown. In CRE, uncertainty is the enemy of investment, and right now, investors are caught in the waiting room until the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget sets the tone.
“Still, green shoots are there. Encouragingly, brokers are reporting more multi-lot deals in the pipeline, and as debt costs cool and bid–ask gaps narrow, the gears could start turning again.”
