Residential property transactions rose 19% year-on-year in December, reaching 96,330 on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 3% increase from November, according to the latest HMRC data released last week.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, transactions totalled 98,120, reflecting a 15% annual rise but a 7% decline compared to November.
December’s figures would seem to indicate stabilisation following a sharp increase in October. Transactions dropped back to normal levels in November and remained relatively steady in December.
For the year to date (April to December), seasonally adjusted transactions are estimated at 873,450, while non-seasonally adjusted transactions stand at 839,870.
INDUSTRY REACTION
Nathan Emerson, Chief Executive of Propertymark, says: “Stamp Duty changes across England and Northern Ireland, more competitive mortgage deals, easing financial pressures and higher house prices are all contributing to higher demand and growth within the housing market.
“This overall mix of market conditions has inspired many and provided extra confidence many people might have been waiting for to consider their next house move.
“Propertymark member agents reported that new buyers registered per branch have on average increased year on year by 44%. Therefore, with demand rising, now is a compelling moment to consider putting your house on the market.
“However, activity will likely settle around April especially, allowing those looking to move home to more comprehensively scan the market and negotiate in a slower-paced and more unpressured marketplace.”
EXTRA MOTIVATION
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, says: “Steady transaction numbers in December are encouraging, particularly given the time of year, as transactions are a better indicator of market health than house price fluctuations.
“Two rate reductions in the second half of last year bolstered buyer and seller confidence, and with further cuts expected this year, there is cautious optimism which bodes well for the spring market.
“While some lenders have reduced their fixed-rate mortgages, helping ease affordability, increased stock means buyers have more choice so are in a stronger negotiating position and remain price sensitive.
“With stamp duty changes providing an extra motivation for first-time buyers in particular to transact over the next few months, a further rate cut from the Bank of England would be timely and give further impetus to the spring market.”
RESILIENT MARKET
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS Residential Chairman, says: “Completed sales are a much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices.
“However, these figures reflect activity mostly from around three to four months ago but of mortgaged and cash sales, so demonstrate considerable market resilience at a time of pre- and post-Budget uncertainty.
“In our offices, transactions are progressing but slowly as caution about economic prospects remains. Nevertheless, few sales seem to be failing or are subject to considerable renegotiation but patience is essential.”
KEY INDICATOR
Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “These figures offer valuable insight into overall activity and are a key indicator as to how the market is likely to shape up in early 2025.
“Steady transaction volumes shows that higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures are impacting buyers, preventing the market from running away with itself. We found that early January was quiet but the month as a whole has been busier than normal with a good number of market appraisals, which bodes well for a strong spring market.
“In areas where stock is limited, markets have remained steady, particularly the family home market with work-from-home potential. Homes that are well priced and well presented are still selling relatively quickly; while buyers may pause to assess financial implications, high-demand areas are likely to retain interest.”
CONFIDENCE BOOST
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “Rate reductions are a great way of boosting confidence and activity in the housing market, as we saw with the base rate cuts in second half of last year.
“All eyes will be on the Bank of England next week to see whether we get another, much-anticipated rate cut, giving the market a welcome boost and helping those borrowers who may be struggling with affordability.”
