Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing growing pressure to inject billions more into affordable housing, following a report suggesting the government is on course to miss its flagship target of 1.5 million new homes by a wide margin.
Research from Savills, commissioned by the National Housing Federation (NHF), casts doubt on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of 1.3 million net new homes by 2030.
The report highlights that the OBR projection includes all UK nations, while Labour’s pledge applies to England alone – and over a shorter time frame.
Adjusting for both, Savills estimates the government is on track to deliver just 1 million homes during this parliament.
GENERATIONAL BOOST
Chris Buckle, head of residential research at Savills, told The Guardian:“The heroic rates of growth forecast by the OBR will not be achieved without further action.”
Kate Henderson, chief executive of the NHF, said meeting demand would require “a generational boost to investment in social and affordable housing.”
The findings fuel a rift between Reeves and housing secretary Angela Rayner, who is pushing for a substantial increase in funding ahead of this month’s spending review.
Rayner argues the £2 billion pledged in the March Budget was only a “downpayment” on Labour’s housing commitments.
Affordable housing starts have collapsed – down 35% in England and 90% in London in 2024.
The NHF says meeting need would require 90,000 new social homes annually, costing £11.5 billion if fully publicly funded.
The federation is also calling for long-term certainty on social rent levels to support housing associations, some of which have warned ministers of “the worst housing situation in living memory.”
With just days to go before departmental budgets are set, negotiations between key ministers remain deadlocked.
