UK property transactions picked up in October, with residential activity reaching its strongest level since the spring according to the latest HMRC data.
Seasonally adjusted residential transactions rose 2% month-on-month to 98,450, the highest figure since March 2025.
However, activity remains 2% lower than the same month last year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions climbed 13% between September and October to 116,230 and stood 4% higher year-on-year.
The non-residential market showed a more subdued picture. Seasonally adjusted transactions totalled 10,250 in October – 4% higher than in September but still 29% below October 2024.
STABILISING MARKET
HMRC pointed out that the comparison is distorted by unusually elevated activity last year, when concerns ahead of the Autumn Budget 2024 pushed non-residential deals to their highest level since records began in 2005.
Non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions rose 10% on the month to 11,290 but remained 26% down on the year.
The figures suggest a property market that was stabilising in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, with housing activity recovering modestly while commercial transactions continue to feel the effects of last year’s pre-budget surge.
RELIEF BOUNCE
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, says: “Housing transactions fell last month compared to the previous year, which was also marked by a period of pre-Budget uncertainty.
“Apprehension among buyers also led to weaker house price growth in recent months thanks to the recent bout of prolonged speculation around taxation.
“I would expect a relief bounce now we have certainty, but a tax-raising Budget that does things like freeze income tax bands, will do nothing for demand in the medium term.”
CLARITY, FINALLY
Iain McKenzie, Chief Executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “The latest HMRC figures show a market that has held its nerve through a period of heightened uncertainty.
“October’s seasonally adjusted residential transactions reached 98,450, a 2% rise on September and the strongest level since March 2025, despite being slightly below last October.
“It’s important to remember that these results come from a market where many households were effectively holding their breath ahead of potential property reforms in the Autumn Budget.
“Now that the Budget has been confirmed, thousands of movers finally have the clarity they need to progress.”
NEEDS-BASED BUYERS AND SELLERS
And he adds: “What we’re seeing beneath the headlines is a market underpinned by needs-based buyers and sellers, those upsizing, downsizing, or moving for lifestyle reasons, who have continued to transact regardless of noise around the edges. At the same time, metrics such as mortgage approvals point to an underlying resilience, signalling cautious confidence.
“An increase in homes coming to market compared with last year is giving buyers more choice than they’ve had for some time, which is keeping price growth in check. Looking ahead, affordability is set to improve gradually as wage growth continues to outpace house prices, and borrowing may become more accessible if the Bank of England moves to cut the Base Rate in the coming months. With inflation falling in October, there is growing optimism that another rate cut is on the cards as early as December.
“Taken together, these are encouraging indicators. As we move into the winter period, we expect greater stability and a more decisive return of movers who had been waiting on the sidelines.”
MISSED OPPORTUNITY
Nathan Emerson, Chief Executive at Propertymark, adds: “Typically on the lead up to any Budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation, as people look to assess what might be proposed.
“However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science to the magnitude of uncertainty. With lower base rates than only twelve months back, it is positive to see forward momentum in terms of growth in the number of housing transactions taking place both year on year and month on month while referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.
“Within the Budget, it was disappointing not to witness any support for first-time buyers and assistance for those who may be considering downsizing in the Budget at a time of extreme demand on current housing stock.
“There has been what feels like a missed opportunity to promote the concept of people being able to move more easily to a property that fits their precise needs.”
