The North West has overtaken London as the UK’s leading region for off-plan sales of new-build flats, marking a significant shift in investor appetite and regional housing market dynamics.
In 2024, 63% of new-build flats in the North West were sold off-plan—the highest proportion of any region in England and Wales. This is the first time since 2007 that any region has surpassed London in off-plan flat sales.
Salford led the charge, with 80% of all new flats sold before completion last year—the highest share of any local authority in the country. In nearby Liverpool, the figure reached 75%.
Nationally, off-plan sales have been in retreat. Just 31% of all new homes—both houses and flats—were sold before completion in 2024, the lowest level since 2012 and a sharp drop from the 49% peak in 2016. Flats, often a bellwether of the off-plan market, have seen a steeper decline: from 73% sold off-plan in 2016 to 50% last year.
KEY DRIVERS
David Fell, Lead Analyst at Hamptons, says: “Off-plan sales have held up in Northern England which has seen the bulk of house price growth since 2016.
“Investors from across the country, who are a key source of demand for off-plan sales, have continued to buy in these areas to lock in today’s prices for developments which often won’t be finished for years.
“The expectation that prices will be higher tomorrow remains one of the biggest drivers of off-plan sales for both investors and owner-occupiers.”
MISSING TARGETS
And he adds: “But nationally, fewer new homes finding a buyer before they’re built has hit housebuilders hard.
“It is unlikely that the level of off-plan sales being agreed is sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target, given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site. While bulk deals with institutional investors have helped, they haven’t replaced demand from smaller landlords.
“The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow.”
“Last November’s rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes from 3% to 5% hit many off-plan investor purchases which completed last year but agreed and exchanged in 2023 or even 2022.
“The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow.”
REGIONAL VARIATIONS
Hamptons’ annual off-plan sales index, based on Land Registry data, shows that regional cities have overtaken London’s traditional stronghold.
Alongside Salford and Liverpool, areas such as Bradford (65%), Selby (64%), Derby (64%) and Doncaster (60%) now dominate the top 10 local authorities for off-plan flat sales. By contrast, London’s share of new flats sold off-plan fell to 55% in 2024, down from 81% in 2016.
Regionally, London has seen one of the steepest declines, with off-plan flat sales dropping by 25 percentage points since 2016. Nationally, the share of flats sold off-plan has declined by 22 percentage points over the same period, and houses – which are more likely to be bought by owner-occupiers 0 have seen a more modest fall, from 35% to 26%.
SLUGGISH PRICE GROWTH
The slump in off-plan sales is linked to sluggish price growth in the capital and increased caution among investors. In contrast, the North West, buoyed by stronger recent price rises, has remained attractive to buyers looking to secure prices ahead of completion.
In 2024, flats were still twice as likely to be sold off-plan as houses, highlighting their central role in the forward-sales model of many developers.
However, the data suggests that unless confidence returns to the off-plan market – particularly in higher-value regions – housebuilders may struggle to meet output targets in the years ahead.
