The government’s long-debated decision to give the green light to a second runway at Gatwick Airport has sparked fresh anxiety in the Surrey and West Sussex housing markets where thousands of homeowners are bracing for turbulence.
New analysis from estate agency Yopa suggests property values across the so-called Gatwick Diamond – the cluster of local authorities surrounding the airport – could take a significant short-term hit.
At the point of announcement and planning, house prices typically see a modest dip of between 1- and 5% as buyers sit on their hands, concerned about future noise, flight paths and disruption.
Based on an average fall of 3%, Yopa calculates that sellers in Mole Valley could be facing a paper loss of more than £16,000, with Reigate & Banstead homeowners down by almost £15,000, and Horsham and Mid Sussex both taking double-digit hits. Crawley, with a lower average price point of about £326,000, would see a smaller reduction of just under £10,000.
SHARPER DECLINES
But the sharper declines are expected once diggers move in and the £2.2 billion privately funded project gathers pace.
In Mole Valley, where the average property costs just over £540,000, a fall of 7.5% would equate to more than £40,000. Tandridge and Reigate & Banstead could see average values shrink by £38,000 and £36,500 respectively, while in Crawley the figure would be nearer £25,000.
Verona Frankish, Yopa’s chief executive, reckons that the concerns are well founded.
She says: “Homeowners within the Gatwick Diamond will be understandably concerned about the potential impact of a second runway on property values across the local market.
“Our analysis suggests that, in some areas, households could see as much as £40,000 wiped from the value of their home.”
NEGATIVE IMPACT
She adds that uncertainty around the final flight paths, night flight schedules, traffic and air quality would weigh heavily on the market.
She says: “Such factors carry a negative impact on demand and saleability, and it’s likely to affect the local market as a whole, not just those who stand to bear the brunt of it.”
Yet it’s not all bad news. Infrastructure projects of this scale often deliver longer-term gains once the dust has settled.
Yopa’s figures suggest that by 2030, when the new runway is due to be completed, the Gatwick Diamond could see average house prices climb by almost 10% as new jobs, improved transport connections and wider economic benefits filter through.
NET POSITIVE
For homeowners closest to the site, that growth could simply reverse the damage sustained during the construction phase.
But for those further afield – not directly under new flight paths or living with day-to-day disruption – the second runway could turn out to be a net positive.
Frankish adds: “There is a silver lining. The delivery of new transport infrastructure often brings long-term economic benefits, and this tends to filter down to an uplift in house prices in the years that follow.
“The Gatwick Diamond could well be one area of the market to watch over the coming years.”
