The once relentless tide of Londoners heading for the shires has slowed to its weakest level since 2013 as the return to the office and sluggish house price growth in the capital sap both appetite and purchasing power.
Hamptons’ analysis of Countrywide data shows that in the first seven months of 2025, Londoners bought just 5.3% of homes sold outside the capital.
That’s half the volume recorded during the pandemic “race for space” in 2021, when 63,600 homes were snapped up by those cashing out of the capital. This year the tally is 31,620.
The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the Covid years, when flexible working unleashed a wave of movers in search of bigger homes and greener views.
EQUITY SQUEEZE
Now, with hybrid patterns settling and the London market struggling to keep pace with the rest of the country, many would-be movers are simply staying put.
House prices outside London have risen 26% in the last five years – three times the 8% recorded in the capital. Over 10 years, the gap is even wider: 55% growth outside the M25 versus 23% in Greater London.
That means homeowners cashing out in London are no longer getting the boost they once did to trade up elsewhere.
For those in Inner London, the squeeze is even clearer. This year the average seller could double their space when moving out – gaining 1,178 sq ft – but that’s still 32% less than the bonus on offer back in 2016.
In practical terms, it’s two double bedrooms lost. Outer Londoners fare better, adding 55% more space on average when they move, though that’s also down on the 72% gain achievable in 2016.
WHO’S MOVING WHERE
Outer Londoners still make up the majority of movers but Inner London residents now account for a record 30% of leavers, up from 25% a decade ago.
High borrowing costs and weaker local price growth mean some central London homeowners are casting their nets wider, though affordability is steering choices more than lifestyle.
In 2021, over a third of Inner London movers headed beyond the South East and East of England to lifestyle hotspots such as Cornwall or the Cotswolds.
This year, that figure is just 31%, the same as for Outer London leavers, suggesting more are keeping closer ties to the capital.
That trend is echoed in the local authority rankings. In 2015, Broxbourne, Sevenoaks and Welwyn Hatfield topped the list of London hotspots.
By 2020, Dartford and Epping Forest surged thanks to the remote working boom. Fast forward to 2025 and Dartford still leads (67% of buyers are from London), with Epping Forest (62%), Tandridge (61%), Thurrock (59%) and Hertsmere (54%) making up the top five. Basildon has also climbed into the mix, with Londoners accounting for 38% of buyers.
PRICE SENSITIVITY
For agents outside the capital, the message is clear: London money is still important, but the volume of leavers is shrinking and their wallets don’t stretch as far as they once did. That means more price sensitivity, less lifestyle-driven buying, and more focus on value-for-money locations within reach of London’s jobs market.
For London agents, slower outmigration reflects a market where fewer people can release enough equity to make a move worthwhile.
With the capital’s housing market lagging, many homeowners are choosing to sit tight rather than trade out.
The “race for space” may be over, but the ripple effects are still shaping demand on both sides of the M25.
BUYER COMPROMISE
Aneisha Beveridge, Head of Research at Hamptons, says: “London’s housing market has been treading water for much of the last decade, and that’s now shaping migration patterns.
“The return to the office has played a role in curbing the appetite for long-distance moves, but it’s the lack of price growth in the capital that’s really clipped the wings of would-be leavers.
“Many London homeowners simply haven’t built up enough equity to make the leap to where they want to go, especially as prices outside the capital have continued to climb.
“The result is fewer moves, shorter distances, and a growing focus on affordability over aspiration.”
CLEAR SHIFT
And she adds: “We’re seeing a clear shift in where Londoners are heading. The pandemic pushed buyers into leafier, more lifestyle-driven locations but today’s movers are more pragmatic.
“Places like Dartford and Thurrock are topping the list – not just because they’re commutable, but because they offer better value, particularly for first-time buyers.
“Even Inner London leavers, who once ventured far and wide, are now staying closer to the capital. In a sign of the times, the dream of doubling your space still exists, but it’s no longer a given. Buyers are having to compromise and that’s reshaping the map of London outmigration.”
