London’s property market has reached the bottom of its current cycle according to new analysis from estate agency Chestertons, which reports that average prices across the capital are now broadly unchanged year on year.
The firm says that although some higher-value postcodes have seen modest declines, pricing across much of the city has remained stable, creating conditions that typically precede an upturn in activity.
Chestertons says that this period of stability follows an extended run of economic and political pressures, including rising interest rates and shifts in buyer sentiment ahead of the Autumn Budget.
The agency argues that the combination of flat pricing, selective adjustments and resilient demand suggests the market is now poised for a gradual recovery once greater policy clarity emerges.
PAUSE IN DECISION-MAKING
Its latest data shows a pattern often associated with the bottom of a housing cycle: a slowdown in enquiries, viewings and offers, alongside an increase in new listings.
Rather than signalling a renewed downturn, Chestertons says this reflects a pause in decision-making as buyers await clearer economic signals. In previous cycles, similar conditions have preceded a sharp rebound in market activity.
The current environment is therefore creating what the agency describes as an opportunity for committed buyers, with greater choice and less competition than in recent years. London’s underlying fundamentals – including population growth, a shortage of new supply and recovering international interest – are expected to support stronger activity once confidence returns.
RESILIENCE NOT WEAKNESS
Matthew Thompson, Head of Sales at Chestertons, reckons that the market’s stability points to resilience rather than weakness.
He says: “The market has weathered Brexit, a global pandemic, political uncertainty and rising interest rates.
“Although some areas, particularly in Prime Central London, have experienced modest price declines, many other postcodes have held firm.
“What we are seeing now is not a lack of demand but prospective buyers waiting for clarity following the Government’s Autumn Budget.”
TURNING POINT
And he adds that a turning point is approaching. “London’s fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Once confidence improves, this pent-up demand will be released.”
Chestertons expects stabilising inflation, improving mortgage conditions and the detail of the Autumn Budget to act as catalysts, laying the groundwork for a more active 2026. Thompson says: “We believe the market has now found its floor and that 2025 will lay the foundations for a more active period ahead.”
