House prices may continue to edge down over the remainder of the year as uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget puts further pressure on buyer confidence and transaction levels, according to new analysis by Springbok Properties.
The quick-sale specialist examined house price movements following the past seven major fiscal announcements – including Spring and Autumn Budgets and Government growth plans – and found that such events typically trigger short-term declines in the property market.
On average, house prices fell by 0.1% in the month following each announcement and by 0.4% over the subsequent three months, as buyers and sellers paused ahead of potential policy changes.
However, the market has historically recovered once the immediate disruption passes, with prices rising by an average of 2.65% over the year that follows.
SUBDUED SENTIMENT
This year’s Statement arrives at a particularly fragile moment for the housing market. Elevated borrowing costs continue to restrict affordability, while speculation over possible tax changes, a weaker economic outlook and subdued sentiment are expected to dampen demand further.
Agents report an overhang of stock in some areas, lengthening transaction times and prompting more sellers to cut asking prices.
Shepherd Ncube, chief executive of Springbok Properties, reckons fiscal uncertainty is already influencing behaviour.
He says: “The upcoming Autumn Statement comes at a critical time for the property market,” he said. “With interest rates still elevated and confidence fragile, even the hint of new fiscal changes can cause both buyers and sellers to hesitate.
“History shows that these major announcements tend to spark a period of adjustment, and with house prices already dipping, we’re likely to see that continue through the end of the year.”
CHALLENGING CHOICES
He adds that many sellers now face difficult decisions. “For those who need to sell, the challenge is that waiting for certainty could mean selling for less. Quick-sale routes allow homeowners to act decisively before further market softening, providing the speed and certainty they need in uncertain times.
“For those who can afford to wait, history suggests the market does recover once the dust settles – but not everyone has that luxury.”
